Angola commodities October 2022

After three months of consecutive declines, the average price of Cabinda oil rose to $95.0 per barrel in October, up from $92.5 in September. This represents an increase of 2.7% on a monthly basis. Meanwhile, prices rose 13.7% year over year.

Oil prices rose slightly over the previous month amid worsening supply prospects. In the coming months, oil supplies are seen to stagnate after the implementation of the OPEC+ cuts in November and the EU embargo on Russian oil in December. Meanwhile, poor economic performance in most economies is likely to dampen demand somewhat.

Turning to production, Cabinda’s oil production rose to 1.6 million barrels per day in September. Production among other OPEC+ members has generally trended lower. Production declined in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Venezuela, while it remained stable in Iran and increased in Iraq.

Global oil prices are expected to remain near their current levels in the fourth quarter of 2022, before easing slightly in 2023. The global economic slowdown will affect the demand for oil. However, the OPEC+ cuts and EU sanctions on Russian oil will restrict oil supplies in the future. The main factors to watch are the evolution of OPEC+ quotas and sanctions against Russia, as well as the production levels of other oil producers. Turning to production, the panelists see Angolan oil production in 2023 close to 2022 levels – well below its historical average. Lower production will prevent the country from taking full advantage of oil prices, which remain high.

Members of the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Committee expect oil production to reach 1.17 million barrels per day in 2023. In 2024, the committee sees crude oil production at 1.21 million barrels per day.

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