The average price of Cabinda oil fell to $106.6 per barrel in August, down from $119.4 in July. This represents a decrease of 10.7% month over month. However, prices remained high by 50.3% y/y.
Oil prices fell over the previous month amid deteriorating global prospects. Oil demand has slumped due to an economic slowdown in key customer China – driven in part by new Covid-19 restrictions – and decades-old high inflation in Western countries.
Turning to production, Cabinda’s oil production fell slightly to 1.18 million barrels per day in August from 1.19 million barrels per day in July. Production divergence among other OPEC+ members. Production also decreased in the Emirates, while it was stable in Iran and Iraq. In contrast, production increased in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Global oil prices should remain flat on average for the remainder of the year. Higher OPEC+ and US production will support prices amid fears of a global recession. The main factors to watch are new sanctions on Russia, sudden changes in OPEC+ quotas and the Iran nuclear deal. In terms of production, committee members expect Angolan oil production to increase in 2022 compared to the previous year, which will boost economic growth.
Members of the FocusEconomics Consensus forecast committee expect oil production to reach 1.17 million barrels per day in 2022. In 2023, the committee sees crude oil production at 1.16 million barrels per day.