Assessment of technological developments – diplomacy

Diplomatic writer Mercy Kuo regularly engages professional experts, political practitioners, and strategic thinkers around the world for their diverse visions of US policy in Asia. This conversation with Dr. Richard Silberglet – Senior Physicist and Professor at Pardee RAND Graduate School, RAND CorporationIt is number 326 in “The Trans-Pacific View Insight Series”.

Identify the three main points of co-authoring ReportAnd the Use predictive analytics tools to assess technological developments and acquisition targets. “

From 1990 to 2017, the United States pioneered—the first country in which the emergence occurred—much more technological emergence than any other nation in six general technical areas of interest to the Department of the Air: Additive Manufacturing (AM), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Ceramics, Quantum, and Sensors .

When the emergence of China occurs after the emergence of the United States, that is, China is the follower, the time interval between the onset of emergence in the two countries is much larger than for a much smaller number of emergences in which China ranks first and the United States. countries follow.

Technology emergences in China are increasing much more rapidly than in the US, and in the most recent period of time studied (2009-2017), there were more early patent filings (i.e. within the first two years after emergence) in China than in China. in the United States. The United States states emergency in the six general technical areas studied that occur within three years of each other in the two countries.

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Explain the report’s methodology and the role of US and Chinese patent and application filings in measuring technological developments and acquisition targets.

We identified technological developments by detecting rapid increases in the cumulative number of patent applications filed in specific technical areas, using a large data set that includes all international patent filings and patents issued since 2001. We identified the country in which the emergence first occurs as a “technology pioneer” in This particular technical area, because it is most likely the home of inventors, and patent applicants are often the pioneers in the most important applications of that technology. When an appearance in the same specific technical area, which we define according to the CPC scheme, occurs at a later time in another country, we designate that country as “dependent”.

We compared US-China appearances for all appearances between 2001 and 2017 in the six public art areas studied to determine who was a leader and who was a follower. Organizations with the oldest patent applications in a “technologically leading” emerging nation may be attractive acquisition targets, particularly if their early patent applications are in more than one emergence, indicating the potential application of an emerging technology in one or more areas Various emerging technology.

Compare and contrast US and Chinese technology leadership and comparative advantage.

The United States is a “technological leader” many times more than any other country in the six general technical areas studied throughout the time period studied (1990-2017). When both the United States and China have appearances in the same specific technical field, the United States is a “technological leader” many times more than China. For the smaller number of times that China is the “tech leader” and the United States is the “follower,” the time between the emergence of leaders and followers is much shorter than when China is the “follower,” indicating that over time during the period and in general technical areas studied, the United States was in a stronger position when it was a technological ‘dependent’ than China when it was a technological ‘dependent’.

Examine international patent trends and the trajectory of technology competition between the United States and China.

We have made a detailed comparison of patent filings in the United States and China in a small number of specific technical areas with appearances (2% of total impressions) in which appearances in the United States and China occurred within 1-3 years of each other, which we call Near emergencies. For these near eruptions, we found a time-dependent difference when comparing the number of early patent filings in the US and China:

  • From 2001 to 2008, most of the early patent filings in the near future were in the general technical fields studied in the United States.
  • From 2009 to 2017, the number of near appearances in which China received the majority of early patent filings was greater than the number of near appearances in which the United States had the majority of early patent filings in all six general technical areas studied.

Evaluate the policy implications of the report’s findings and recommendations for US policy makers and industry leaders.

While the US continues to be a “technological leader” in the general technology areas studied, China has filed earlier patent applications in recent years than the US in specific technology areas that have seen the US and China emerge within 1-3 years of each other (“Nearby Emergencies”). To properly assess technological leadership in these specific technical areas, policy makers and industry leaders in the United States should conduct a detailed comparative analysis of the quality of patent and product filings in the global market for early adopters in the United States and China.

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To identify specific technology areas in which the United States is a “technology leader” and there are US companies with technologically leading capabilities that could make them attractive to potential foreign acquisition, US policy makers and industry leaders should examine organizations with early patent applications in more than Emergence, which refers to the potential application of an emerging technology in one or more different emerging technology areas.

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