Business cycle indicators reported as of mid-September

With August industrial production nearing consensus (m/m -0.2% vs. 0.1% Bloomberg), we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in $Ch.2012 (green), manufacturing sales and trade in $Ch.2012 (black), consumption in the quarter. 2012$ (light blue), Ch.2012 monthly GDP in US dollars (pink), official GDP (blue bars), all regular logarithms to 2021M11 = 0. Magenta shading indicates dates associated with a hypothetical recession in H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (9/1/2022 release), and author calculations.

GDP and other indicators look mixed; However, if we look at the GDO, it looks more consistent.

Figure 2: Nonfarm payrolls (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in $Ch.2012 (green), manufacturing sales and trade in $Ch.2012 (black), consumption in the quarter. 2012 $ (light blue), Ch.2012 monthly GDP in US dollars (pink), GDP, GDO (blue bars), all record normalized to 2021M11 = 0. Magenta shading indicates dates associated with a hypothetical recession in H1 . Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (9/1/2022 release), and author calculations.

For more discussion of GDP vs. GDO and other related measures, see this post from the beginning of the month.

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