Calculated Risk: Home Inventory August 1 Update: 32.3% YoY Increase

by Calculated risk on 01/08/2022 10:14:00 AM

Inventory is still growing rapidly, but Inventory building slowed down somewhat over the past few weeks. However, inventory is increasing faster than usual at this time of year (both in percentage terms and in terms of total inventory added). Here are the same week’s inventory changes for the past four years:

2022: 13.4 K

2021: 4.4 K

2020: -13.4 thousand

2019: 2.9K

Inventory decreased seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now Now up to 124% since then. More than double! Altos reports that inventory is up 32.3% year over year and is now 23.2% higher than last year’s peak.

Click on the chart for a larger picture.

This stock chart was provided by Altos Research.

As of July 29, inventory is at 539K (7-day average), compared to 526K in the previous week. Inventory is up 2.5% from the previous week.

Inventory is still historically low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory increased by 32.3% from 407 thousand, but compared to the same week in 2020, inventory decreased by 14.0% from 627 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 44.6% from 972K.

Here are the inventory parameters I see using Altos data:

1. Seasonal Bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅

2. Increase Inventory YoY (Happened May 13th for Altos) ✅

3. Increased inventory compared to two years ago (currently down 14.0% according to Altos)

4. Increased inventory compared to 2019 (currently down 44.6%).

Altos منزل home inventory

Below is a graph of stock change for 2021, 2020 (Milestone 3 above), and 2019 (Milestone 4).

The blue line is the annual data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and the purple dashed is compared to 2019.

Two years ago (in 2020) the stock was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year.

Based on recent increases in inventory, My current estimate is that stock will rise compared to 2020 in late August or early September this yearreturning to 2019 levels in early 2023.

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