Calculated Risk: Housing Weekly November 14 Update: Inventory is down slightly on a weekly basis

by Calculated risk on 11/14/2022 09:00:00 AM

Active inventory has decreased slightly. Here are the same week’s inventory changes for the last four years (The stock usually declines seasonally during the winter):

2022: -3.5K (lower-than-normal decrease in inventory)

2021: -6.9K

2020: -5.1 thousand

2019: -6.3 thousand

Altos reported that inventory fell 0.6% on a weekly basis.

Click on the chart for a larger picture.

This stock chart was provided by Altos Research.

As of November 11, inventory is at 572K (7-day average), compared to 575K in the previous week.

Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory increased by 45.1% from 394 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020, inventory increased by 8.9% from 525 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago (2019), inventory is down 35.9% from 892K.

Here are the inventory parameters I have been monitoring using Altos data:

1. Seasonal Bottom (happened on March 4, 2022 for Altos) ✅

2. Inventory increase year-over-year (occurred on May 20, 2022, for Altos) ✅

3. Increased inventory compared to 2020 (occurred on October 7, 2022, for Altus) ✅

4. Increased inventory compared to 2019 (currently down 35.9%).

Altos منزل home inventory

Below is a graph of stock change for 2021 (Milestone 2 above), 2020 (Milestone 3) and 2019 (Milestone 4).

The blue line is the annual data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and the purple dashed is compared to 2019.

The key will be if inventory declines more slowly than normal during the winter months.

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