Calculated Risk: July Employment Preview

by Calculated risk on 04/08/2022 11:01:00 AM

On Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, the BLS will release its employment report for July. The consensus is 250,000 jobs added, the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6%.

372K jobs were added in June, and the unemployment rate was 3.6%.Click on the chart for a larger picture.

• First, there is still offline About 500,000 fewer jobs than in February 2020 (the month prior to the epidemic).

This graph shows job losses since the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current slump in employment was by far the worst slump since World War II in percentage terms. However, the current employment recession, 28 months after it began, has recovered faster than the two previous recessions.

ADP report: The ADP employment report has been ‘paused’ and is being reprocessed.

ISM surveys: Note that ISM services are spread indexes Based on the number of companies hiring (Not the number assigned). The ISM® Industrial Employment Index fell in July to 49.9%, up from 47.3% last month. This would indicate a loss of about 20,000 manufacturing jobs.

The ISM® Services Employment Index rose in July to 49.1%, up from 47.4% last month. This would indicate an increase in service employment by about 50,000 in July.

Taken together, ISM surveys suggest only 30,000 jobs were added in July.

Unemployment demands: The weekly claims report showed an increase in the number of initial jobless claims during the reference week (includes the twelfth of the month) from 233,000 in June to 261,000 in July. This usually indicates fewer workers being laid off in June than in May. Overall, weekly claims were above expectations in July.

Corona virus disease: As far as the epidemic, the number Daily cases during the reference week in June were around 125,000up from 105,000 in June.

conclusion: The consensus is that job growth will slow to 250,000 jobs added in July. Overall, the ISM surveys have improved, but still indicate a small number of jobs were added in July. Unemployment claims rose during the reference week. This points to a weaker-than-expected employment report for the month of July.

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