Calculated Risks: Housing, Weekly Update Jan 23rd: Inventory is down slightly on a weekly basis

by calculated risks 1/23/2020 08:30:00 AM

Altos reported that the stock was down 0.1% on a weekly basis. Usually the bottoms are stripped in February. In 2022, inventory is down in early March. It is possible that the stock has already bottomed out for this year!

Here are the same week’s inventory changes over the past five years:

2023: -0.6k

2022: -6.8K

2021: -8.2K

2020: +2.1 thousand

2019: +10.3 thousand


Click on the chart for a larger image.

This stock chart is provided by Altos Research.

As of January 20, inventory is 472K (7-day average), compared to 473K in the previous week.

The second chart shows the seasonal pattern of active single household stocks since 2015.

Altos house inventory

The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up from the past two years (the record low was in 2022), but it’s still well below normal levels.

Inventory is up 70.5% compared to the same week in 2022, and down 42.8% compared to the same week in 2019.

The key will be when inventory starts to build up in 2023 — so far inventory has been basically flat in the first three weeks of 2023.

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