Regarding the view that the US economy was in recession earlier this year (eg, this observer less than a month ago), the CFNAI has the following:
The CFNAI 3-month moving average fell below 0 (i.e. fell below trend growth) in May and June. Notes to the CFNAI indicate “After a period of economic expansion, an increased probability of a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value of less than -0.70.” CFNAI-MA3 did not breach this threshold.
As for the indicators from the decrease or increase in the number of indicators (ie the spread indicator), we have the following picture.
So, I (still) don’t see a recession in 2022H1.