Four high-frequency indicators of the economy

These pointers are mostly for travel and leisure. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the epidemic subsides. Notes: I have added the saved gasoline again to see if there is an effect from higher gasoline prices.

—– Airline: Transportation Security Administration —–

The TSA provides daily travel numbers.

This data is as of September 11th.

Click on the chart for a larger picture.

This data shows a 7-day average of TSA total daily passenger productivity for 2019 (light blue), 2020 (black), 2021 (blue), and 2022 (red).

The The dashed line is the percentage for 2019 for an average of seven days.

The 7-day average is down 4.9% from the same day in 2019 (90.9% from 2019). (Dashed line)

Air travel – as a percentage from 2019 – has been moving sideways over the past several months, down nearly 10% from 2019. Travel has rebounded recently, compared to 2019, probably due to the timing of Labor Day.

—– Movie tickets: Box Office Mojo —–

Ticket office transferThis data shows the domestic box office per week and average for the years 2016 to 2019 (dashed light blue).

Black is 2020, blue is 2021, and red is 2022.

Data from BoxOfficeMojo through September 8.

Note that the data is usually noisy from week to week and depends on when the popular movies are released.

Movie ticket sales reached $82 million last week, down about 44% from the week’s average.

—– Hotel occupancy: STR —–

Hotel occupancy rateThis graph shows the seasonal pattern of hotel occupancy rate using Average four weeks.

Red streak is for 2022, black for 2020, blue is the average, and dashed light blue is for 2021. The dashed magenta is 2019 (STR compares to a strong year for hotels).

This data is as of September 3. The occupancy rate increased by 3.1% compared to the same week in 2019. This was the first week, since the beginning of the pandemic, with higher occupancy than a similar week in 2019.

The average occupancy rate for 4 weeks is higher than the average rate for the last 20 years (blue).

Notes: The y-axis does not start from scratch to better show seasonal change.

—– Energy Saver: EIM —–

gasoline consumption

This graph shows, based on weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), gasoline saved compared to Same week in 2019.

Blue for 2020, purple for 2021, red for 2022.

As of September 2, the supply of gasoline is down 7.9% compared to the same week in 2019.

Gasoline supplies have recently been running below 2019 and 2021 levels – and sometimes even lower than 2020.

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