A quick estimate showed that the economy grew 11.8% year-on-year in the second quarter – the fastest pace since 2011 – confirming that the economy continues to grow at breakneck speed after expanding by 9.9% in the first quarter.
The improved performance is attributed to the stronger expansion in the oil sector, which grew by 23.1% in the second quarter compared to 20.3% in the first quarter. Growth in the non-oil private sector rose to 5.4% in the second quarter from 4.5% in the first quarter, while growth in non-oil government activity slowed to 2.2% in the second quarter (Q1: 2.4%).
The acceleration in the second quarter was partly due to the underlying effect — seasonally adjusted quarterly growth slowed to 1.8% in the second quarter from 2.6% in the first. The non-oil sector slowed in sequential growth. However, the oil sector accelerated on a quarterly basis due to higher oil production. Looking ahead, the oil sector is set to continue to lead the momentum. In terms of total GDP, sequential growth is likely to remain strong in the third quarter, although annual growth will be affected by the impact of a stricter rule.
FocusEconomics committee members expect GDP to rise 7.7% in 2022, 0.3 percentage point higher than last month’s estimate. For 2023, committee members expect the economy to expand 3.6%.