According to a preliminary estimate, gross domestic product rose 1.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis in the second quarter, accelerating notably from the 0.2% rise recorded in the first quarter. The economy surprised markets on the upside and benefited from the removal of most remaining restrictions due to Covid-19 and a strong Easter holiday season for tourism. On an annual basis, the economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, which was unchanged from the previous quarter.
The marked recovery in consumer spending led to the quarterly acceleration: private spending rose 3.2% qoq, after a 2.0% contraction in the first quarter, despite higher energy prices, benefiting from a tight labor market and accumulated savings. Meanwhile, fixed investment rose 2.8%, supported by growth in investment in tangible fixed assets and housing (Q1: +3.4% q/q), while government consumption was down 0.5% q/q (Q1: +0.1% q/q). quarterly basis).
Meanwhile, the external sector weighed on the economy, with export growth outpacing that of imports: Exports of goods and services were up 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis (Q1: +.1% q/q) while imports were up 4.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Quarterly (Q1: -0.8% qoq).
Members of the FocusEconomics Consensus forecast committee expect GDP to expand 5.0% in 2022, which is 0.6 percentage points lower than last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2023.