Geographical distribution of economic activity until June 2022

From the Philadelphia Fed Synchronized Index, 3-month growth rates, through June 2022:

source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve, July 27, 2022.

Only negative growth is recorded for Alaska and Montana. Using Baumeister et al. Weekly Economic Conditions Index, growth only reached a negative level (until June 25) in Alaska and Utah.

The Philadelphia Fed’s coincidence index was different from both the official BEA gauge and the IHS Markit gauge of GDP:

Figure 1: 2012 quarter monthly GDP in US dollars (pink), concurrent index (teal), 2012 official quarterly GDP in US dollars (blue bar), all logarithms normalized to 2021 11 million = 0. Source: IHS Markit ( nee Macroeconomic Advisors) (Version 7/1/2022), Philadelphia Fed, BEA, and author accounts.

In some ways, this isn’t too surprising. The Philadelphia federal indices are based on four indicators: non-farm employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary payments deflated by the consumer price index (the US city average).” These primarily reflect The labor market, which as we know from the enterprise survey was still strengthening during the month of June.

For comparison’s sake, here’s a map of 2007M12, NBER’s heyday before the Great Recession:

source: Philadelphia Reserve.

At least 13 states, including Michigan, recorded a decline at the start of the Great Recession (but 9 months earlier than Lehman Brothers).

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