Industrial production grew 6.8% year-on-year in October, which is down from September’s 9.8% increase. The October results were the worst reading since February 2021. This figure was largely attributed to weak mining and quarry production growth. In addition, electricity, gas and utility production contracted at an even greater rate.
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial production fell 1.1% in October (September: +0.3% MoM), the worst result since May. Meanwhile, the trend has indicated a downward trend, with the average annual variation of industrial production reaching a one-year low of -1.1%, down from September’s reading of -0.6%.
Commenting on the release, Ad ING economists said:
“Polish industry was very strong in Q3 2022, driven by the improvement in global supply chains, but October was probably the last month to see significant year-on-year production growth. In the coming months, overall production is expected to suffer from a high base of production growth. An impressive (and hard-to-explain) last year in the power production department.”
FocusEconomics panel members expect industrial production to expand 7.9% in 2023, which is a 1.0 percentage point increase from last month’s forecast. For 2024, the committee expects industrial output to grow by 4.6%.