My colleague Kenneth West gave a long interview about inflation, interest rates, and recession on Wisconsin Public Radio Central Time on Monday.
To paraphrase, for projections, look at employment, unemployment, job openings… and for inflation, look at core inflation rates.
Figure 1: Unemployment rate, % (blue, left scale), annual core CPI inflation quarterly (black, right scale), PPI finished goods minus food and energy (green, right scale), core PCE deflator ( red, right scale), all in %. Source: BLS via FRED, BEA via FRED, author accounts.
For the entire interview (about 20 minutes long), go here.