by Calculated risk on 9/12/2022 10:20:00 AM
Active inventory fell 1.0% last week. Here are the same week stock changes for the past four years (the 2019 increase was a one-week increase):
2022: -5.4 K
2020: -5.0 thousand
Click on the chart for a larger picture.
This stock chart was provided by Altos Research.
As of September 9, inventory is at 547K (7-day average), compared to 553K in the previous week. Inventories are down 1.0% from the previous week.
Inventory is still historically low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory increased by 26.9% from 431 thousand, but compared to the same week in 2020, inventory decreased by 5.5% from 579 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 43.2% from 964K.
1. Seasonal Bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅
2. Inventory increase year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅
3. Increased inventory compared to two years ago (currently down 5.5% according to Altos)
4. Increased inventory compared to 2019 (currently down 43.2%).
Below is a graph of stock change for 2021, 2020 (Milestone 3 above), and 2019 (Milestone 4).
The blue line is the annual data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and the purple dashed is compared to 2019.
Two years ago (in 2020) the stock was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year long.
Based on recent stock changes, My current estimate is that stock will increase compared to 2020 in the fourth quarter of this year.
The key will be if inventory increases this month – inventory is down so far.