Inventory rose 0.9% last week; Hits the new peak of 2022

by Calculated risk on 9/26/2022 09:02:00 AM

Active inventory rose for the second week in a row, up 0.9% last week, and To reach a new peak this year. Here are the same week’s inventory changes for the past four years:

2022: +4.9K

2021: -3.7K

2020: -5.2K

2019: -0.3 thousand

Inventory decreased seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now Now up to 131% since then. More than double! Altos reports that inventory is up 28.7% year over year.

Click on the chart for a larger picture.

This stock chart was provided by Altos Research.

As of September 23, inventory is at 557K (7-day average), compared to 552K in the previous week. Inventories rose 0.9% from the previous week.

Inventory is still historically low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory increased by 28.7% from 433 thousand, but compared to the same week in 2020, inventory decreased by 1.9% from 568 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 42.2% from 963K.

Here are the inventory parameters I see using Altos data:

1. Seasonal Bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅

2. Inventory increase year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅

3. Increased inventory compared to two years ago (currently down 1.9% according to Altos)

4. Increased inventory compared to 2019 (currently down 42.2%).

Altos منزل home inventory

Below is a graph of stock change for 2021, 2020 (Milestone 3 above), and 2019 (Milestone 4).

The blue line is the annual data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and the purple dashed is compared to 2019.

Two years ago (in 2020) the stock was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year long.

Based on recent stock changes, My current estimate is that stock will increase compared to 2020 in the fourth quarter of this year.

The key will be to increase inventory this fall. Inventory rose slightly in September.

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