Market Talk – Jan 12, 2023

Asia:

A Reuters poll showed that China’s economic growth is likely to rebound to 4.9% in 2023, before stabilizing in 2024, as policymakers pledged to step up their support for the economy ravaged by the coronavirus. Gross domestic product is likely to grow just 2.8% in 2022 as lockdowns hit activity and confidence, according to the median forecast of 49 economists polled by Reuters, slower than the 3.2% increase seen in the October forecast and severely curbing growth. from 8.4%. in 2021. The projected growth rate for 2022 will be well below the official target of 5.5%. Barring a 2.2% expansion after the initial coronavirus hit in 2020, it would also be the worst showing since 1976 — the final year of the decade-long Cultural Revolution that devastated the economy. The survey showed gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2022 likely grew 1.8% from a year earlier as anti-virus restrictions intensified, slowing from the third-quarter pace of 3.9%. On a quarterly basis, the survey showed, the economy is expected to contract by 0.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9% in the July-September period.

Major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • And the NIKKEI 225 increased by 3.82 points, or 0.01%, to 26,449.82.
  • The Shanghai index rose 1.61 points, or 0.05%, to 3,163.45 points
  • The Hang Seng Index rose 78.05 points, or 0.36%, to 21,514.10.
  • The ASX 200 rose 85.10 points, or 1.18%, to 7,280.40
  • The Kospi Index rose 5.57 points, or 0.24%, to 2,365.10.
  • SENSEX fell 147.47 points, or -0.25%, to 59,958.03
  • Nifty50 fell 37.50 points, or -0.21%, to 17,858.20

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD rose 0.00758, or 1.10%, to 0.69748
  • NZDUSD rose 0.00426, or 0.67%, to 0.64046
  • USDJPY fell 3.334, or -2.52%, to 129.136
  • USDCNY fell 0.03809, or -0.56%, to 6.72761

Valuable minerals:

  • Gold rose by $22.86/ton ounce. or 1.22% to 1,899.24
  • Silver rose by $0.491/ton. ounces or 2.10% to 23.910

Some economic news from last night:

China:

CPI (MoM) increased (Dec) from -0.2% to 0.0%

CPI (YoY) increased (Dec) from 1.6% to 1.8%

PPI (YoY) increased (Dec) from -1.3% to -0.7%

Japan:

The adjusted current account increased from -0.61T to 1.92T

The nsa current account (November) rose from -0.064T to 1.804T

Australia:

The trade balance (November) increased from 12.217 billion to 13.201 billion

New Zealand:

Building Approvals (MoM) increased (November) from -10.7% to 7.0%

Some economic news from today:

India:

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) Decreased from 5.88% to 5.72%

Europe/EMEA:

Eurozone consumers’ inflation expectations finally eased in November, an European Central Bank survey showed on Thursday, ending a prolonged rally as skyrocketing food and energy prices increased the cost of daily living. Inflation hit double digits late last year, but it now appears to be peaking and the ECB’s focus is slowly shifting from halting its climb to the speed with which it can bring it back to its 2% target. Average inflation expectations over the next 12 months fell to 5% in November from 5.4% in the previous month while expectations for price growth in the next three years fell to 2.9% from 3%, the European Central Bank said based on a survey of 14 1,000 adults in six of the largest eurozone countries.

The spending power of consumers in the UAE remains strong despite concerns about the global macroeconomic environment. This is according to research conducted by leading management consulting firm, Kearney, exploring consumer sentiment and buying habits. Price increases were most felt in food and beverages (85%), transportation including gas prices (77%), restaurants and hotels (72%), clothing and footwear (70%), and electronics (68%). However, despite concerns and marked price hikes, consumers do not expect their spending to be affected as more than half (56%) plan to make a major home purchase (AED 1,000+) in the next six months.

Major European stock markets had a green day:

  • The CAC 40 index rose 51.49 points, or 0.74%, to 6,975.68 points.
  • The FTSE 100 rose 69.06 points, or 0.89%, to 7,794.04.
  • The DAX 30 rose 110.39 points, or 0.74%, to 15,058.30.

The major European currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD rose 0.00966, or 0.90%, to 1.08516
  • GBPUSD rose 0.0078, or 0.64%, to 1.22200
  • USDCHF fell 0.00327, or -0.35%, to 0.92763

Some economic news from Europe today:

Germany:

Germany’s current account balance increased from 5.7 billion to 16.9 billion

United States / America:

Additional US inflation data was released this Thursday, providing promising signs of lower prices. The CPI fell 0.1% in December, according to the Labor Department, which marks the largest month-over-month decline since April 2020. However, the headline CPI rose 6.5% from December 2021, as the cost of living remains an issue for most Americans. . Core CPI increased by 5.7% from a year earlier, and increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis. Gas prices are finally falling after posting a 9.4% month-over-month decline, down 1.5% for the year. Fuel oil sharply decreased by 16.6% compared to the previous month, which is a decrease of 4.5% in the energy index. Food prices remained elevated and increased by 0.3% during the month. Shelter costs also continued to rise, posting an increase of 0.8% month-over-month and 7.5% year-over-year. Prices in general remain unstable and far from the central bank’s 2% target.

US market close:

  • The Dow advanced 216.96 points, or 0.64%, to 34,189.97.
  • The S&P 500 advanced 13.56 points, or 0.34%, to 3,983.17.
  • The Nasdaq advanced 69.43 points, or 0.64%, to 11001.1
  • Russell 2000 advanced 32.01 points, or 1.74%, to 1,876.06.

Canada Market Close:

  • The TSX Composite advanced 186.15 points, or 0.93%, to 20211.2
  • TSX 60 advanced 11.04 points, or 0.92%, to 1216.02

Brazil Market Close:

  • Bovespa fell 666.86 points, or -0.59%, to 111,850.22.

energy:

Oil markets had a green day today:

  • Crude Oil rose $1.171/BBL, or 1.51%, to 78.582
  • Brent rose $1.454/BBL, or 1.76%, to 84.124
  • Natural gas rose $0.1223/mmbtu, or 3.33%, to 3.7933
  • Gasoline rose $0.0414/gallon, or 1.70%, to 2.4759
  • Heating oil increased $0.0151/gallon, or 0.47%, to 3.2330.

The above data was collected at approximately 14:10 EST on Thursday

  • Top gainers in commodities: natural gas (3.33%), corn (2.28%), oats (3.07%) and coffee (4.07%)
  • The biggest losers in commodities: Wood (-2.03%), Potatoes (-1.02%), Cotton (-2.17%) and Rhodium (-0.81%).

The above data was collected at approximately 14:16 EST on Thursday.

Bonds:

Japan 0.505% (+0.5 bps), US 2’s 4.14% (-0.092%), US 10’s 3.4418% (-11.42 bps); US 30 3.57% (-0.107%), Bonds 2.102% (-8.3 bps), France 2.624% (-4.9 bps), Italy 3.998% (-4.6 bps), Turkey 9.91% (+47 bps) , Greece 4.044% (-14.8 basis points), Portugal 3.039% (-8.3 basis points); Spain 3.152% (-5.1 basis points) and the United Kingdom 3.335% (-7.5 basis points).

Market Talk – January 11, 2023

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