Market Talk – January 17, 2023

Asia:

Analysts warn that rising housing and rent prices in India’s big cities could pose a new challenge to the country’s central bank in its fight against inflation, even though rising consumer prices have likely peaked. Housing rents and extra costs have a 10.07% weight in India’s consumer price inflation basket and are near three-year highs, a new concern for the central bank that has had to deal with rising food prices for most of last year. Data from the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation showed urban housing inflation rose to 4.47% year-on-year in December 2022, compared to 3.61% in the same period a year earlier and 3.21% in December 2020. Retail inflation in India fell to 5.72% in December, within the comfort zone The Reserve Bank of India fell from 2%-6% for the second consecutive month after staying above the upper limit for the first 10 months of last year.

Major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 increased by 316.36 points, or 1.23%, to 26,138.68 points.
  • The Shanghai index fell 3.35 points, or -0.10%, to 3,224.24 points
  • The Hang Seng Index fell 169.08 points, or -0.78%, to 21,577.64 points.
  • The ASX 200 fell 1.90 points, or -0.03%, to 7,386.30
  • The Kospi Index fell 20.47 points, or -0.85%, to 2,379.39.
  • The SENSEX index rose 562.75 points, or 0.94%, to 60,655.72 points.
  • Nifty50 stock rose 158.45 points, or 0.89%, to 18,053.30.

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD rose 0.00290, or 0.41%, to 0.69828
  • NZDUSD rose 0.00457, or 0.72%, to 0.64247
  • USDJPY fell -0.290, or -0.23%, to 128.250
  • USDCNY rose 0.03420, or 0.51%, to 6.77670

Valuable minerals:

  • Gold fell by $5.69/ton ounce. or -0.30% to 1,912.31
  • The price of silver decreased by $0.419/ton. ounces or -1.72% to 23.980

Some economic news from last night:

China:

Fixed asset investment decreased (YoY) (Dec) from 5.3% to 5.1%

GDP (QoQ) (Q4) decreased from 3.9% to 0.0%

GDP (YoY) (Q4) decreased from 3.9% to 2.9%

China GDP (YoY) (Q4) unchanged at 3.0%

Industrial Production Decreased (YoY) (December) From 2.2% to 1.3%

Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (December) Decreased From 3.8% To 3.6%

China’s unemployment rate fell from 5.7% to 5.5%

Japan:

Third Industry Activity Index (MoM) decreased from 0.5% to -0.2%

Australia:

Westpac Consumer Confidence (Jan) increased from 3.0% to 5.0%

New Zealand:

NZIER Business Confidence (Q4) decreased from -42% to -70%

Some economic news from today:

New Zealand:

The Global Dairy Business Price Index increased from -2.8% to -0.1%.

Europe/EMEA:

Britain’s wage growth, which is closely watched by the Bank of England as it measures how high interest rates rise, accelerated in the three months to November, official data showed on Tuesday. Wages excluding bonuses rose 6.4% annually in the September-November period, the largest increase since records began in 2001, not counting jumps in the COVID-19 period distorted by lockdowns and government support measures. The Office for National Statistics said wages, including bonuses, also rose by 6.4%. Britain’s unemployment rate is holding steady at 3.7%, the Office for National Statistics said, in line with the survey, and near its lowest level in nearly 50 years. Employment rose faster than expected by 27,000. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday that a shortage of workers in the labor market poses a significant risk to predictions that inflation will decline from current levels above 10%.

Major European stock markets had a mixed day:

  • The CAC 40 rose 33.85 points, or 0.48%, to 7,077.16.
  • The FTSE 100 fell 9.04 points, or -0.12%, to 7,851.03.
  • The DAX 30 rose 53.03 points, or 0.35%, to 15,187.07.

The major European currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD fell 0.00221, or -0.20%, to 1.07939
  • GBPUSD rose 0.00735, or 0.60%, to 1.22645
  • USDCHF fell 0.00578, or -0.62%, to 0.92072

Some economic news from Europe today:

Italy:

Italian CPI (MoM) decreased (December) from 0.5% to 0.3%

United kingdom:

Average Earnings + Bonus Index (November) increased from 6.2% to 6.4%

Claimants change rate (Dec) increased from 16.1k to 19.7k

Employment change 3 months / 3 months (November) remained the same at 27K

Unemployment rate (November) unchanged at 3.7%

Germany:

German CPI (YoY) decreased (Dec) from 10.0% to 8.6%

German CPI (MoM) fell (Dec) from -0.5% to -0.8%

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (January) rose from -23.3 to 16.9

Euro-zone:

The ZEW Economic Sentiment (January) rose from -23.6 to 16.7

United States / America:

The Dow fell during early trading after Goldman Sachs disclosed its biggest profit loss in the past 10 years. Earnings per share came in at just $3.32, compared to an estimate of $5.48, according to Refinitiv. Quarterly earnings were down 66% from a year earlier, to $1.33 billion. Revenue came in at $10.59 billion, down 16% from the fourth quarter of 2021. The bank also noted that it was seeing “early signs of deteriorating consumer credit,” providing a broader picture that Americans are struggling in the current economy.

US market close:

  • The Dow fell 391.76 points, or -1.14%, to 33,910.85 points.
  • The S&P 500 fell 8.12 points, or -0.2%, to 3,990.97.
  • The Nasdaq advanced 15.96 points, or 0.14%, to 11,095.11
  • Shares of Russell 2000 fell 2.75 points, or -0.15%, to 1,884.29.

Canada market closing:

  • The TSX Composite advanced 67.13 points, or 0.33%, to 20,457.46
  • The TSX 60 advanced 4.25 points, or 0.35%, to 1,232.6

Brazil Market Close:

  • Bovespa advanced 2,226.46 points, or 2.04%, to 111,439.12

energy:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

  • Crude Oil rose $1.523/BBL, or 1.93%, to 80.335
  • Brent crude rose $1.516/BBL, or 1.79%, to 85.976
  • Natural gas fell $0.0428/mmbtu or -1.17%, to 3.6228
  • Gasoline rose $0.0515/gallon, or 2.07%, to 2.5443
  • Heating oil fell $0.0135/gallon, or -0.41%, to 3.2603.

The above data was collected at approximately 11:53 a.m. EST on Tuesday

  • Top gainers in commodities: methanol (2.84%), wood (28.31%), rubber (3.22%) and bitumen (2.60%)
  • The biggest losers in commodities: Platinum (-2.00%), Palm Oil (-1.48%), Silver (-1.72%) and Natural Gas (-1.17%).

The above data was collected at approximately 12:03 a.m. EST on Tuesday.

Bonds:

Japan 0.505% (+0 bp), US 2’s 4.19% (-0.047%), US 10’s 3.5181% (-0.56 bp); US 30 3.63% (-0.013%), Bonds 2.096% (-9.9 bps), France 2.544% (-9.4 bps), Italy 3.893% (-11.8 bps), Turkey 9.95% (-8 bps) , Greece 4.096% (-5.1 basis points), Portugal 2.994% (-10.1 basis points); Spain 3.067% (-9.6 basis points) and British Bonds 3.33% (-5.6 basis points).

Market Talk – January 13, 2023

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