Market Talk – January 19, 2023

Asia:

China’s annual consumer inflation rate accelerated in December, driven by higher food prices even as domestic demand fluctuated amid restrained economic activity. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December was 1.8% higher than a year earlier, rising faster than its annual gain of 1.6% in November. The result matched a Reuters poll estimate of 1.8%. Food prices rose 4.8% in December from a year earlier, after an annual rise of 3.7% in November. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, remains low, although it rose from an annualized rate of 0.6% in November to 0.7% last month. This reversed the early effects of reopening in the healthcare and travel sectors, where inflation has risen.

Major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 fell 385.89 points, or -1.44%, to 26,405.23 points.
  • The Shanghai index rose 15.87 points, or 0.49%, to 3,240.28 points
  • The Hang Seng fell 27.02 points, or -0.12%, to 21,650.98.
  • The ASX 200 rose 41.90 points, or 0.57%, to 7,435.30
  • The Kospi index rose 12.02 points, or 0.51 percent, to 2,380.34.
  • SENSEX shares fell 187.31 points, or -0.31%, to 60,858.43
  • Nifty50 fell by 57.50 points, or -0.32%, to 18,107.85

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD fell 0.00461, or -0.66%, to 0.68949
  • NZDUSD fell 0.00577, or -0.90%, to 0.63833
  • USDJPY fell 0.268, or -0.21%, to 128.612
  • USDCNY rose 0.01566, or 0.23%, to 6.78386

Valuable minerals:

  • Gold rose by $15.71/ton ounce. or 0.83% to 1,919.47
  • Silver rose by $0.204/ton. ounces, or 0.87%, to 23,630

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

The revised Trade Balance increased from -1.78T to -1.72T

Exports (YoY) (Dec) Decreased from 20.0% to 11.5%

Trade Balance (December) increased from -2,027.4B to -1,448.5B

Australia:

Employment Change (DEC) decreased from 58.2K to -14.6K

Full Employment Change (DEC) decreased from 33.2K to 17.6K

Unemployment rate (December) unchanged at 3.5%

Some economic news from today:

Hong Kong:

Unemployment rate decreased (December) from 3.7% to 3.5%

Indonesia:

Raise the interest rate decision from 5.50% to 5.75%

Europe/EMEA:

The European Central Bank on Thursday countered market bets that it would slow the pace of interest rate hikes given recent drops in inflation and ease pressure to match policy moves by other central banks. Markets had been expecting the European Central Bank’s deposit rate of 2% to reach around 3.2% by summer, a significant cut from levels of around 3.5% priced at the turn of the year. Traders have recently scaled back their expectations for how much the European Central Bank will raise borrowing costs, comforted by data showing declining inflation in both the eurozone and the US and related talk of smaller increases by the US Federal Reserve.

Major European stock markets had a negative day:

  • The CAC 40 fell 131.52 points, or -1.86%, to 6,951.87 points.
  • The FTSE 100 fell 83.41 points, or -1.07%, to 7,747.29
  • The DAX 30 fell 261.44 points, or -1.72%, to 14,920.36.

Major European currency markets had a green day today:

  • EURUSD rose 0.00281, or 0.26%, to 1.08201
  • GBPUSD rose 0.00288, or 0.23%, to 1.23748
  • USDCHF rose 0.00043, or 0.05%, to 0.91643

Some economic news from Europe today:

Swiss:

PPI (MoM) (Dec) decreased from -0.5% to -0.7%

United States / America:

The US Department of Labor reported a decrease in the unemployment rate for the week ending January 14th. Initial claims decreased by 15,000 from the previous week to 190,000. Analysts expected a reading closer to 214,000. However, mass layoffs are occurring in both the technology and banking sectors. The Fed is actively looking for signs of improvement.

The Bank of Canada believes businesses will see sales decline this year as consumers grapple with the rising cost of living. The Central Bank indicated in a recent report that two-thirds of companies expect a recession, but about 50% said they are still looking for employees to fill vacant roles. About two in five companies also expect inflation to fail to reach the bank’s 2% target until at least 2026. Consumers are also feeling pessimistic, with 72% seeing a recession on the horizon.

US market close:

  • The Dow Jones index fell 252.46 points, or -0.76%, to 33,044.5.
  • The S&P 500 fell 29.94 points, or -0.76%, to 3,989.92.
  • The Nasdaq fell 104.74 points, or -0.96%, to 10,852.27.
  • Russell 2000 fell 18.02 points, or -0.97%, to 1,836.35

Canada Market Close:

  • The TSX Composite Index fell 34.79 points, or -0.17%, to 20,341.44.
  • TSX 60 shares fell 1.71 points, or -0.14%, to 1,225.79.

Brazil Market Close:

  • Bovespa advanced 693.49 points, or 0.62%, to 112,921.88 points.

energy:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

  • Crude Oil rose $0.934/BBL, or 1.18%, to 80.414
  • Brent crude rose $1.158/BBL, or 1.36%, to 86.138
  • Natural gas fell $0.032/mmbtu or -0.97%, to 3.2790
  • Gasoline rose $0.0713/gallon, or 2.83%, to 2.5948
  • Heating oil increased $0.0782/gallon, or 2.40%, to 3.3412

The above data was collected at approximately 13:32 EST on Thursday

  • Top gainers in commodities: Gasoline (2.83%), Heating Oil (2.40%), Wood (2.30%) and Palladium (1.73%)
  • The biggest losers in commodities: canola (-1.39%), cotton (-1.49%), oats (-1.74%) and cocoa (-2.14%).

The above data was collected at approximately 13:37 EST on Thursday.

Bonds:

Japan 0.404% (-1.5 bps), US 2’s 4.12% (+0.048%), US 10’s 3.4024% (+2.74 bps); US 30 3.57% (+0.031%), Bund 2.066% (+5.8bp), France 2.49% (+4bp), Italy 3.786% (+3bp), Turkey 9.89% (+2bp) , Greece 4.024% (+3.1 bps), Portugal 2.924% (+4.3 bps); Spain 3.02% (+5.9 basis points) and the United Kingdom 3.322% (+0.7 basis points).

Market Talk – January 18, 2023

Related Posts

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *