Market Talk – October 31, 2022

Asia:

Officials in Chinese cities and provinces across the country are making no effort to stem sporadic outbreaks of COVID-19 as winter approaches, quickly closing venues and imposing longer temporary lockdowns on millions of people. The number of cases in mainland China reached 2,898 on Sunday, surpassing 2,000 for the second day in a row and putting pressure on the country’s controversial COVID non-proliferation policy, which has crippled the economy and angered its citizens. The total cases in Guangzhou rose to 1,110 from October 24-30 from 402 in the previous seven-day period. The threat of a major shutdown will shake the city back to the nightmarish two-month shutdown that Shanghai experienced a few months ago. On Monday, the Shanghai Disney Resort said it had closed the entire resort as of October 31 due to the city’s COVID prevention measures.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • The NIKKEI 225 increased by 482.26 points, or 1.78%, to 2,7587.46 points
  • Shanghai Index fell 22.44 points, or -0.77%, to 2,893.48 points
  • The Hang Seng Index fell 176.04 points, or -1.18%, to 14,687.02 points
  • The Kospi added 25.21 points, or 1.11%, to 2,293.61 points
  • The ASX 200 Index rose 77.80 points, or 1.15%, to 6,863.50 points
  • Sensex shares increased 786.74 points, or 1.31%, to 60,746.59 points
  • Nifty50 rose 225.40 points or 1.27% to 18012.20

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD fell 0.00215 or -0.34% to 0.63910
  • NZDUSD fell 0.00013 or -0.02% to 0.58117
  • USDJPY rose 1.234 or 0.84% ​​to 148.699
  • USDCNY rose 0.06626 or 0.91% to 7.33606

Precious metals:

  • Gold is down $8.90/ton/oz. or -0.54% to 1,632.86
  • Silver price decreased by 0.074 USD/ton. ounces or -0.38% to 19.153

Some economic news from last night:

China:

China Composite PMI (October) fell from 50.9 to 49.0

Manufacturing PMI (October) fell from 50.1 to 49.2

Non-manufacturing PMI (October) fell from 50.6 to 48.7

Japan:

Industrial Production (MoM) (September) down 3.4% to -1.6%

Retail Sales (YoY) (September) increased from 4.1% to 4.5%

Australia:

Private Sector Credit Down (MoM) (September) from 0.8% to 0.7%

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sept) Unchanged at 0.6%

Some economic news of the day:

Hong Kong:

GDP (Quarterly) decreased from 1.0% to -2.6%

GDP (YoY) decreased from -1.3% to -4.5%

M3 Money Supply (September) decreased from 0.7% to -0.8%

Japan:

Building Orders (YoY) (September) increased from 17.9% to 36.6%

Household Confidence (October) decreased from 30.8 to 29.9

Number of housing start-ups (y/y) (September) decreased from 4.6% to 1.0%

India:

Federal fiscal deficit (September) increased from 5,416.01 billion to 6,198.49 billion

Infrastructure Output (YoY) (September) increased from 3.3% to 7.9%

Europe/Europe, Middle East and Africa:

The Russian ruble pared early losses to post gains on Monday in the first session since Moscow said it would suspend its role in the historic Black Sea grain deal over the weekend. Global food prices rose on Monday after Russia said it was suspending its participation in a UN-brokered grain deal “indefinitely” after what it said was a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in the Black Sea in Crimea. The July grain corridor deal, which helped free Ukrainian exports from its southern Black Sea ports, was the most significant diplomatic breakthrough yet in Ukraine’s eight-month-old conflict. Kyiv and the West have criticized Russia’s decision to abandon the agreement, and analysts have warned that it could cause another rise in global food prices.

Major European stock markets had a mixed day:

  • The CAC 40 fell 6.28 points, or -0.10%, to 6,266.77
  • The FTSE 100 rose 46.86 points, or 0.66%, to 7,094.53
  • The DAX 30 Index rose 10.41 points, or 0.08%, to 13,253.74 points

The major European currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD fell 0.00859 or -0.86% to 0.98793
  • GBPUSD fell 0.01464 or -1.26% to 1.14669
  • The US dollar rose against the Swiss franc 0.00551 or 0.55% to 1.0161

Some economic news from Europe today:

Swiss:

Retail Sales (YoY) (September) increased from 2.1% to 3.2%

Germany:

German Retail Sales (MoM) (September) increased from -1.4% to 0.9%

Euro-zone:

CPI (YoY) (October) increased from 9.9% to 10.7%

CPI (MoM) increased from 1.2% to 1.5%

Core CPI (YoY) increased from 4.8% to 5.0%

GDP (YoY) decreased from 4.3% to 2.1%

GDP (Quarterly) decreased from 0.8% to 0.2%

United States / America:

US home builders are not optimistic about the year ahead yet. Housing starts fell 19% year-on-year in September, with permits down 17%. Homebuilders saw two years of very lucrative profits after house prices rose by 40% or more. High rates pairs with inflation curbs demand. Pulegroup, one of America’s largest homebuilders, reported a 15% cancellation rate in the second quarter, followed by 24% in the third.

US market closing:

  • The Dow fell 128.85 points, or -0.39%, to 3,2732.95
  • The S&P 500 fell 29.08 points, or -0.75%, to 3807.3 points
  • The Nasdaq fell 114.31 points, or -1.03%, to 10,792.67
  • Russell 2000 fell -0.06 points or 0% to 1,846.86

Canada market closing:

  • The TSX Composite Index fell 45.05 points, or -0.23%, to 19,426.14
  • TSX 60 fell 2.82 points, or -0.24%, to 1177.01

Brazil market closing:

  • Bovespa advances 1498.03 points or 1.31% to 116.037.08 points

energy:

Oil markets had a mixed day today:

  • Crude Oil is down $1,903/BBL or -2.17% to 85,997
  • Brent crude fell $3,651/BBL or -3.81% to 92.119
  • Natural gas rose $0.6194/MMBtu or 10.90% to 6.3034
  • Gasoline fell $0.1030/gallon or -3.54% to 2.8036
  • Heating oil decreased $0.1693/gallon or -3.72% to 4.3805

The above data was collected around 16:27 EST on Monday

  • Top gainers in commodities: natural gas (10.90%), wheat (6.39%), coffee (4.65%) and oats (5.40%)
  • The biggest losers in commodities: Coal (-7.38%), Brent (-3.81%), Zinc (- 5.07%) and heating oil (-3.72%).

The above data was collected around 16:34 EST on Monday

Bonds:

Japan 0.240% (-0.5 basis points), US 2 4.49% (+0.071%), US 10’s 4.0582% (+4.82 basis points); US 30 4.17% (+0.040%), Bunds 2.148% (+6.2 bps), France 2.686% (+8 bps), Italy 4.306% (+14.5 bps), Turkey 10.99% (-26 bps), Greece 4.59% (+15.5 bp), Portugal 3.165% (+8.6 bp); Spain 3.255% (+10.4 basis points) and UK bonds 3.528% (+3.2 basis points).

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