It will likely be wetter than normal along the east coast this summer, but drier than normal in many parts of Western Australia, according to the Met Office.
It is particularly likely to be wetter along the coast of New South Wales, most of Victoria, and large parts of Queensland, as well as northern and eastern Tasmania, the office said, which released its long-term forecast for the summer on Thursday.
The bureau warned that any significant rainfall could lead to flooding as rivers are already high, dams are full and watersheds are wet.
“Above-average precipitation also increases the risk of landslides and fallen trees in areas of steep terrain and very wet soil,” the bureau said.
Warmer than normal nights are expected across the tropical north and in some southern regions, including Tasmania.
Warmer-than-average days are also likely across much of Western Australia and the Northern Territory, coastal northern and central Queensland, and parts of the south including Tasmania.
But cooler days are likely across most of New South Wales and parts of southern Queensland and Victoria.
Bushfires also remain a risk in South Australia.
“The growth of vegetation after above-average rainfall can lead to grass fire risks,” the bureau warned.
Meanwhile, ocean temperatures around northern Australia are well above average, increasing the risk of tropical cyclones and heavy rains.
Overall, the Met Office warns of an increased risk this summer of:
- prolonged heat waves with higher humidity in the southern regions;
- above average of tropical cyclones and tropical lows;
- coastal flooding in the east and north; And the
- Marine heat waves.
“A range of climatic factors across Australia contribute to the wetter outlook in the east, including La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, a positive southern annular situation and warmer ocean waters around Australia,” the bureau said.
“The negative dipole event in the Indian Ocean is weakening and is likely to end by early summer, while the La Niña event in the Pacific may begin to abate in early 2023.”
Originally published as Met Office issues summer flood warning for East Coast