More analysis on August’s existing home sales

by Calculated risk on 9/21/2022 10:51:00 AM

Today, in CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing home sales fell slightly to 4.80 million SAR in August


About pricing, NAR reported:

The median existing home price for all home types in August was $389,500, a 7.7% increase from August 2021 ($361,500), as prices rose in all areas. This represents 126 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest streak ever recorded. However, it was the second consecutive month that the average sales price declined after hitting a record $413,800 in June, the usual seasonal trend for prices to fall after peaking in early summer.

Average prices are distorted by this combination (repeated sales indices like Case-Shiller and FHFA are likely to be a better price gauge).

The annual change in average price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and has now slowed to 7.7%. The year-over-year increase in August was lower than in July (9.5%) and suggests Case-Shiller will slow sharply soon. Note that the average price usually starts declining seasonally in July, so the 2.4% drop from July to August in the average price was partly seasonal (but the drop over the past two months has been much larger than the usual drop).

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