by calculated risks 11/23/2020 10:08:00 AM
The Census Bureau reported that new home sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 632 thousand.
The last two months have been revised downwards.
New single-family home sales in October 2022 were flat The seasonally adjusted annual rate is 632,000According to estimates released today jointly by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.5 percent more than the revised September rate of 588,000, but 5.8 percent below the October 2021 estimate of 671,000.
Click on the chart for a larger image.
The first graph shows new home sales versus recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales are below pre-pandemic levels.
The second chart shows the supply months for new homes.
Supply months in October fell to 8.9 months from 9.4 months in September.
The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.
This is well above the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
“The seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of October was 470,000. That’s an 8.9-month supply at the current sales rate.”
The last graph shows NSA sales (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).
In October 2022 (red column) 48,000 new homes sold (NSA). Last year, 51,000 homes were sold in October.
The all-time high for October was 105K in 2005, and the all-time low for October was 23K in 2010.
This was above expectations, but sales in the previous two months were revised downward. I’ll take more later today.