Nowcasts as of January 10th

Nowcast from Atlanta Federal Plus tracking from GS is out today.

Figure 2: GDP (dark black), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), GDP Now for Q4 (red square), Goldman Sachs (sky blue triangle), IHS Markit (inverted pink triangle), Bloomberg Consensus As of 1/10 (orange line), in billions Ch.2012 $, SAAR. The GDP + level is calculated by iterating over Q4 2019 GDP (when GDP matches GDO). Source: BEA (Q4 3rd Issue), Philadelphia Fed (12/22), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (1/10), Goldman Sachs (1/10), IHS Markit (1/6), Bloomberg, Available here. and author accounts.

GDP is now much higher (4.1%) against the Bloomberg consensus (2.4%), as well as recent readings from Goldman Sachs and IHS Markit.

View IHS Markit/S&P Global as of 1/6 [not online]:

Despite strong headline growth in the fourth quarter, according to our estimates, our narrative of our near-term outlook for the United States remains a mild recession starting in the first quarter of 2023, with a peak-to-bottom decline in GDP at 0.6%.

Mark Zandi (Moody’s) and Heather Boushey (CEA) have both indicated that a “soft landing” is possible, while Jan Hatzius has in the past indicated a possible soft landing, which he likely explained due to the release of the December employment situation.

 

 

 

 

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