One last look at the local housing markets in October

by calculated risks 11/21/2022 12:43:00 PM

Today, in Calculated Real Estate Newsletter: One Last Look at Local Housing Markets in October

Brief excerpt:

The big story for existing home sales in October was the sharp drop in sales year-over-year. The other major story was that new listings fell more year-over-year in October as many potential sellers were locked into their existing homes (lower rate mortgage). Active inventory rose sharply year-over-year.

This is the final look for the domestic markets in October. I track about 35 local housing markets in the United States. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout each month as additional data is released.

Important: Closed sales in October were mostly for contracts signed in August and September. Rates rose to about 6% in September and that affected closed sales in October. In October, 30-year mortgage rates jumped to more than 7%, and that will negatively affect closed sales in November and December.

And the October sales schedule. In October, sales fell 28.6% year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) for these markets. … NAR reported that sales fell 29.5% year-over-year at NSA in October.

Sales in some of the hottest markets are down 40% year-over-year (all of California is down 37%), while in other markets, sales are down nearly 20% year-over-year.

More local data coming in December for activity in November! We should expect a larger decline in sales year-over-year in November and December Because of the increase in mortgage rates in September and October.

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