Peak in 2021 Q4? Business cycle indicators at the beginning of August

If one takes GDP as a determinant of specific business cycles from the NBER, this is what the picture would look like (normalized in the middle of the fourth quarter):

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark dark blue), Bloomberg Consensus as of 8/1 (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in the 2012 quarter in US dollars (dark green), Manufacturing and Commerce Sales in Ch.2012 $ (black), Depreciation in Ch.2012 $ (light blue), Monthly GDP in Ch.2012 $ (pink), Official GDP, 2022Q2 in advance (blue bars), all logarithms normal to 2021M11 = 0 . Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (version 8/1/2022), NBER and author calculations.

The six planned series are those focused on by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, as well as the official BEA GDP, and IHS Markit’s monthly GDP (not currently listed). Among the six major jobs, non-farm (black) jobs and previous transfers of personal income are given the most weight.

This entry was posted on by Minzy Chen.

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