Peru’s Trade Balance July 2022

Merchandise exports fell 7.8% year-over-year in July, following June’s 18.6% rise. The July figure represents the biggest drop since July 2020. Meanwhile, merchandise imports jumped 20.3% y/y in July (June: +28.6% y/y).

As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, posting a $0.1 billion deficit in July (June 2022: $0.8 billion surplus; July 2021: $1.1 billion surplus). Finally, the trend deteriorated, with the 12-month overdue merchandise trade balance posting a surplus of $14.0 billion in July, compared to a surplus of $15.2 billion in June.

Members of the LatinFocus Consensus forecast committee expect merchandise exports to increase by 6.6% in 2022, and merchandise imports to increase by 7.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of US$15.4 billion. In 2023, our team estimates merchandise exports and imports to grow at 2.1% and 2.9%, respectively, with a trade surplus of US$15.4 billion.

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