Romania’s GDP, third quarter 2022

According to a preliminary estimate, growth picked up in the third quarter, with GDP expanding 4.7% yoy (Q2: +3.9% yoy). The third-quarter reading marked the strongest growth since the third quarter of 2021. Available data indicates that the collapse scheduled for December 7 is likely to show an improvement in the manufacturing sector and a slowdown in private consumption.

It should also be noted that significant downward revisions have been made to previous chapters as a result of recent methodological changes. These revisions bring first-quarter and second-quarter growth closer to what analysts initially expected and paint a less positive picture for the first half of the year.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, economic growth was steady at 1.3% in the third quarter.

Commenting on the reading and expectations, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc of JPMorgan commented:

Despite the positive surprise in Q3 ’22, significant revisions to the historical GDP series mean that we revise 2022 GDP growth to 5% from 6.5% previously. […] Unlike NBR [National Bank of Romania]We do not envisage a negative productivity gap in late 2023 or even in 2024 as we see growth remaining fairly robust due to EU funds which have doubled in real terms compared to previous years.”

Our panelists are evaluating the latest version and revisions and a new compatibility will be posted on November 29th.

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