South Lake Tahoe in August

by Calculated risk on 9/12/2022 02:52:00 PM

With the pandemic, there has been a rise in second home buying.

I’m looking at data on some second home markets — and tracking those markets to see if there’s an impact from lending changes, higher mortgage rates, or easing the pandemic.

This graph is for South Lake Tahoe from 2004 through August 2022, and shows stock (in blue), and annual (annual) change in average price (12-month average).

Note: the average price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data.

Click on the chart for a larger picture.

In the aftermath of the housing bubble, prices have been falling for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the average price dropping about 50% from the peak of the bubble.

Stocks are currently still very low, but are up 5 times from the record low set in February 2022, and up 44% year over year. Prices are up 3.8% year over year (and the annual change has been trending downward).

It is possible that the annual change will turn negative soon – even with inventory at relatively low levels historically.

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