South Lake Tahoe in December

by calculated risks 10/1/2023 01:15:00 PM

With the pandemic, there has been a spike in second home buying.

I’m looking at data on some of the second home markets — and I’m tracking those markets to see if there’s an impact from lending changes, higher mortgage rates, or pandemic easing.

This graph is for South Lake Tahoe from 2004 through December 2022, showing inventory (in blue), and year-over-year (YoY) change in average price (12-month average).

Note: Average price is a 12-month average, which is distorted by mix, but that’s the data available.

Click on the chart for a larger image.

In the aftermath of the housing bubble, prices fell for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the average price down about 50% from the peak of the bubble.

Inventory is currently still very low, but still up nearly twice from the record low set in February 2022, and up 6% year-over-year. Prices rose 1.3% year over year (The annual change has been trending downward.)

The annualized change could soon turn negative – even with inventories at historically relatively low levels.

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