State coincidence indexes increased in 20 countries in October

by calculated risks 11/25/2022 09:15:00 AM

From Fedly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the concurrent indices for the 50 states for October 2022. Over the past three months, indices have increased in 36 states, decreased in 11, and remained stable in three, for a three-month spread index of 50. Additionally, in the month Past , Indicators increased in 20 states, it declined in 22 states, and remained stable in eight, for a one-month prevalence index of -4. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The US Philadelphia Fed index rose 0.7 percent over the past three months and 0.1 percent in October
Affirmations added

Note: These are identical indexes created from government employment data. Explanation from Philly Fed:

The simultaneous indicators combine four country-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions into a single statistic. The four statewide variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary payments deflated by the Consumer Price Index (US city average). Each state’s index trend is set according to the trend of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), so long-term growth in a state’s index matches long-term growth in GDP.


Click on the map for a larger image.

Below is a three-month map of change in the coincident indicators for the federal state of Philadelphia. This map was all red during the worst of the pandemic and also the worst of the Great Recession.

The map is mostly positive on a three-month basis.

Source: Philly Fed.

The Federal Reserve Philly number of countries with increased activityHere is a graph of the number of states experiencing increased activity for one month, according to the Philly Federal Reserve.

This graph includes states with slight increases (Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

On October 23, states saw increased activity including small increases.

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