Thailand GDP Q3 2022

GDP growth accelerated to 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, from 2.5% in the second quarter. The third quarter reading marked the best result since the second quarter of 2021 and exceeded market expectations.

This recovery reflected an improvement in private consumption, fixed investment, and exports amid an increase in the number of tourists. Household spending growth rose to 9.0% yoy in the third quarter, the best reading since Q4 2012 (Q2: +7.1% yoy). A marked acceleration in spending on durable goods led to the increase, supported by the expansion of vehicle purchases. Meanwhile, fixed investment rebounded again, growing by 5.2% in the third quarter, in contrast to the 1.0% contraction in the previous quarter, supported by increased investment in machinery and equipment and a rebound in investment in construction. Meanwhile, government spending deteriorated, contracting by 0.6% in the third quarter (Q2: +2.8% yoy).

On the external front, exports of goods and services grew by 9.5% in the third quarter (Q2: +8.5% yoy), driven by higher tourism receipts. Conversely, the growth of imports of goods and services taper to 8.2% in the third quarter (Q2: +9.5% year-on-year).

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, economic growth accelerated to 1.2% in the third quarter, compared to the previous quarter’s expansion of 0.7%. The third quarter reading marked the best result since the fourth quarter of 2021.

Commenting on the economic outlook, Enrico Tanuwidjaja, Economist at the University of Bahrain stated:

“We maintain our forecast for the Thai economy to grow at 3.2% for 2022, double the rate of growth we saw in 2021. For next year, we remain optimistic and expect the Thai economy to grow around 3.7% on the back of higher and more stable expectations of tourism income which will continue to boost domestic trade activities coupled with stronger export performance.”

Members of the FocusEconomics forecast panel expect GDP to grow 3.8% in 2023, down 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast, and expand 3.9% in 2024.

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