The state of the economy in real time, on the eve of the election and the coming year

Christiane Baumeister shared this snapshot as of the week ending October 29, 2022 compared to the same week one year ago, measured by growth rates relative to the long-term national average, as measured by the Buameister/Leiva-Leon/Sims Weekly Economist. Terms index.

This index is described in this post and cited in many posts on this blog.

What are the chances of a recession at the country level based on the index?

Hence, while there is currently not a high real-time probability of a recession aggregated from the state level, the 52-week forecast indicates an increased probability.

Here are the latest readings to date.

Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Conditions Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for the US plus 2% trend (green). Purple shading indicates hypothetical stagnation in 2022H1. Source: NY Fed via FRED, OECD, WECI, and author accounts.

This entry was posted on by Minzy Chen.

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