Christiane Baumeister shared this snapshot as of the week ending October 29, 2022 compared to the same week one year ago, measured by growth rates relative to the long-term national average, as measured by the Buameister/Leiva-Leon/Sims Weekly Economist. Terms index.
This index is described in this post and cited in many posts on this blog.
What are the chances of a recession at the country level based on the index?
Hence, while there is currently not a high real-time probability of a recession aggregated from the state level, the 52-week forecast indicates an increased probability.
Here are the latest readings to date.
Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Conditions Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for the US plus 2% trend (green). Purple shading indicates hypothetical stagnation in 2022H1. Source: NY Fed via FRED, OECD, WECI, and author accounts.